Tag Archives: nyc

Groundhog Day 2015

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Today is Groundhog Day, the midpoint of the winter season.

On this day, according to legend, the weather conditions for the second half of winter can be predicted by the behavior of a prognosticating groundhog.  If the groundhog sees its shadow after emerging from its burrow, there will be six more weeks of winter.  If it does not see its shadow, then spring will arrive early.

The practice of using animal behavior to predict future weather conditions goes back to ancient times.  The particular custom that we are familiar with in the United States grew out of the old world tradition of Candlemas brought by German settlers to Pennsylvania in the 1880s. Today, many communities across the U.S. and Canada continue this age-old ritual with their own special groundhogs.

The most famous of these furry forecasters is Punxsutawney Phil from Pennsylvania – he was portrayed in the 1993 film, “Groundhog Day”. This year, despite an overcast sky, Phil saw his shadow and is calling for six more weeks of wintry conditions.

In New York City, our local weather-groundhog is Charles G. Hogg – more popularly known as “Staten Island Chuck”.  Coming out of his burrow this morning, he did not see his shadow and is predicting an early spring for the Big Apple.

Long-range forecasts are a tricky business, so a difference of opinion is not that uncommon. Either way, the spring equinox is 46 days away.

NYC Monthly Summary: January 2015

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January is typically the coldest month on the calendar for New York City and this year was no exception. We had nine days where the high temperature did not get above freezing and two overnight lows in the single digits. While there were also a few unseasonably warm days, the multiple bouts of extreme cold brought the city’s average monthly temperature down to 29.9°F.  That is 2.7°F below normal.

On the precipitation side of things, the city had 11 days with measurable rainfall.  In all, we received a remarkable 5.23 inches of rain, which is 1.58 inches above normal. Of this impressive total, 2.1 inches fell in a single day, January 18th, setting a new daily rainfall record for the date. Snow was also plentiful with 16.9 inches measured in Central Park. Most of this fell during a single storm – a clipper system that transitioned to a nor’easter – at the end of the month. On average, January usually brings the city a total of 7 inches of snow.

Credit: The Weather Gamut

Credit: The Weather Gamut

Credit: The Weather Gamut

Credit: The Weather Gamut

First Major Winter Storm of 2015 in NYC

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A major winter storm blasted a large area of the eastern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday. Heavy snow and high winds impacted states from the Mid-Atlantic to New England.

Here in New York City, the storm dumped 9.8 inches of snow in Central Park. While that is a substantial amount, it is a far cry from the record-breaking numbers and blizzard conditions that were forecast. In response to this forecast bust, the NWS said, “The science of forecasting storms, while continually improving, still can be subject to error, especially if we’re on the edge of the heavy precipitation shield. Efforts, including research, are already underway to more easily communicate that forecast uncertainty.”

Starting out as a weak area of low pressure, this storm quickly intensified when it interacted with the jet stream and transformed into a massive nor’easter. It tracked further east than expected and that change in distance to the coast made a big difference in where the heaviest snow fell. On Long Island, only a few miles east of NYC, communities dealt with blizzard conditions and over 20 inches of snow.

While not one for the record books in the Big Apple, this storm ended the so-called snow drought in the northeast and brought enough snow for a fun day of sledding in parks across the city.

Weather History: NYC’s Biggest Snowstorms

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A blizzard warning is currently in effect for New York City. The storm is expected to be our biggest snowmaker of the season to date. It could also possibly be one for the record books.

Here is a look at the top ten snowstorms in New York City history.

Source: NOAA

All measurements are from Central Park in NYC. Source: NWS.

Weather and Art: Vortex

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The word vortex – popularized last winter by extended arctic outbreaks related to a wobbly polar vortex – can sound rather ominous. A vortex, however, is simply a whirling mass of air or water.  Its spiral pattern is found throughout nature.

In the weather world, vortices form for a variety and combination of reasons, including differences in atmospheric pressure, wind shear, and centrifugal force. Tornadoes, waterspouts, and hurricanes, are all examples. They, unlike the polar vortex, are visible because of the water vapor and debris that gets sucked into them.

The spiral shape of a vortex is also represented in art in various sizes and materials. One of the largest is Richard Serra’s massive (67’x21’x20’) cor-ten steel sculpture, “Vortex” (2002), at the Modern Art Museum of Fort Worth in Texas. One of my more recent sightings, however, was on a much smaller scale. Also simply titled “Vortex” (1932), this was a small (11×14”) gelatin silver photographic print by Edward W. Quigley at the Museum of Modern Art in NYC. As someone who is fascinated by the intersection of art and science, this image really stood out to me at MOMA’s current photography exhibition, “Modern Photographs: The Thomas Walther Collection, 1909-1949”. It is on view through April 19, 2015.

Credit: Edward W. Quigley and MOMA

“Vortex”, 1932.  Credit: Edward W. Quigley and MOMA

Credit: Richard Serra and

“Vortex”, 2002.  Credit: Richard Serra and Modern Art Museum of Fort Worth 

Arctic Air Brings Brutally Cold Temperatures to NYC

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A massive arctic outbreak has sent most of the U.S. into a deep freeze.  From the Mid-West to the Eastern Seaboard and down to the Gulf Coast, many cities are dealing with the coldest temperatures they have seen this season.

Here in New York City, the mercury fell to 8°F in Central Park this morning. Factoring in the wind chill, it felt like -8°F. Our normal low temperature for this time of year is 27°F.

As cold as it was today, it was not the coldest day the Big Apple has ever experienced. That dubious honor, according to the NWS, belongs to February 9, 1934, when the low temperature was a brutal -15°F.

Produced by a deep dip in the jet stream, our current frigid conditions are expected to stick around through the weekend. Bundle up!

NYC 2014: A Year of Weather in Review

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New York City experienced some noteworthy weather in 2014, especially extreme precipitation events and multiple extended arctic outbreaks.

Starting off brutally cold, the first week of 2014 produced a new record low temperature in Central Park when January 7th posted a minimum reading of only 4°F.  In fact, temperatures were so cold that first month that the Hudson River was filled with ice.  Several arctic outbreaks kept cold conditions in place for most of the winter and the term polar vortex went viral. When summer finally arrived, temperatures hovered around average and not a single heat wave developed. The city typically sees 15 days per year where the temperature reaches 90°F or higher, but 2014 produced only 8. Despite the year’s memorable extended cold snaps, the city’s average temperature for 2014 was 54.37°F.  That is only 0.38°F below our long-term norm.

Precipitation was erratic in NYC during 2014. We had a number of significant rain events, but April 30th really stood out.  It brought the city 4.97 inches of rain – more than a month’s worth – in a single day making it the 10th wettest day on record in NYC. We also fluctuated between extremes like our wettest July in five years and our driest September in nine years. Overall, though, we were more wet than dry. The city received a total of 53.57 inches of rain for the entire year.  That is 3.63 inches above normal.

Snowfall was also abundant. February 2014 was our second snowiest February on record with 29 inches of snow measured in Central Park. January also delivered an above average snow total with 19.7 inches.  For the calendar year as a whole, the city accumulated 50 inches of snow, which is a staggering 24.9 inches above average. In terms of the meteorological winter (December 2013 to March 2014), it was the city’s 7th snowiest winter on record.

On the storm front, the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season was fairly quiet and left NYC unscathed. We felt only some nominal impacts like rain and rough surf from Hurricane Arthur over the July 4th holiday weekend as the storm moved north parallel to the coast after it made landfall in North Carolina.

Looking forward 2015!

2014-temps

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NYC Monthly Summary: December 2014

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December was unseasonably warm in New York City this year. We had 14 days post above average readings, including Christmas Day, which produced a high temperature of 62°F tying the record for the city’s third warmest Christmas. Several stretches of unusually balmy weather brought the city’s mean temperature for the month up to 40.5°F which is 3.5°F above normal.

On the precipitation side of things, the city had 16 days with measurable rainfall.  In all, we received a remarkable 6.04 inches of rain, which is 2.04 inches above normal. Of this impressive total, 2.54 inches fell in a single day, December 9th, and set a new daily rainfall record for the date. Snow, however, was scarce. With unusually warm temperatures in place for most of the month, only 1.0 inch was measured in Central Park.  On average, NYC usually receives 4.8 inches of snow in December.

Dec2014-temps

DecRain-2014

The Chances for a White Christmas 2014

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The Holiday Season is here and many people are dreaming of a white Christmas. The likelihood of seeing those dreams come true, however, are largely dependent on where you live.

According to NOAA, a white Christmas is defined as having at least one inch of snow on the ground on December 25th.  In the US, the climatological probability of having snow for Christmas is greatest across the northern tier of the country. Moving south, average temperatures increase and the chance of snow steadily decreases.

Here in New York City, the historical chance of having a white Christmas is about 12%. This low probability is largely due to the city’s proximity to the Atlantic Ocean and its moderating influence on temperature. This year, with rain and unseasonably warm temperatures in the forecast, the city’s already minimal chance for snow has largely melted away.

Snow or no snow, The Weather Gamut wishes you and your family a very Happy Holiday!

Source: NOAA

Data based on the latest (1981-2010) U.S. Climate Normals from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center. Source: NOAA

NYC Monthly Summary: November 2014

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November 2014 was another rollercoaster of a month in New York City in terms of weather. We had highs ranging from a relatively balmy 69°F to a chilly 36°F. In the end though, with 17 out of 30 days posting below average readings, the cold won out. The extended cold snaps helped lower the city’s mean temperature to 45.3°F, which is 2.7°F below normal.

Precipitation this November was fairly abundant. NYC received 4.51 inches of rain, which is 0.49 inches above average. Most of this fell during two significant rain events that each produced more than an inch of rain in 24-hours. The city also saw its first measurable snowfall of the season with 0.2 inches accumulating in Central Park. Nonetheless, following a parched August and September, the city is still listed as “abnormally dry” on the latest report from the US Drought Monitor.

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