Active 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Comes to a Close

The 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially ended on Saturday.  It marked the fourth year in a row with above-average activity.

According to NOAA, there were eighteen named storms this season. Of these, six developed into hurricanes and three were major hurricanes with ratings of category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It also posted an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 129.8 An average season produces twelve named storms, six hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an ACE of 106.

Officially running from June 1 to November 30, the season got off to an early start with Subtropical Storm Andrea forming in May. This was the fifth consecutive year to see a pre-season storm develop. The biggest names of the season, however, were Dorian and Lorenzo.

In September, Hurricane Dorian made landfall in the Bahamas as a category-5 storm with winds measured up to 185mph and a minimum pressure of 910 millibars.  It was the strongest storm on record to hit the island nation, claiming the lives of at least 60 people and leaving several billion dollars worth of damage in its wake.

Dorian also marked 2019 as the fourth year in a row to see a category-5 storm develop in the Atlantic basin, a new record.

Out at sea, Hurricane Lorenzo became the second category-5 storm of the season. It was also the easternmost Category-5 storm in the Atlantic on record. As for a possible connection to climate change, it is interesting to note that twenty-eight category-5 storms have developed in the Atlantic since 1950 with fourteen of them occurring since 2003.

For the contiguous United States this season, Tropical Storm Imelda caused the most damage. Moving slowly across Texas and Louisiana, it dumped between 30 and 44 inches of rain on the area over the course of three days. It unleashed catastrophic flooding throughout the region and became the fifth wettest tropical cyclone on record in the continental US.

This active hurricane season, according to NOAA, was largely the result of above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, a stronger than normal West African monsoon, and ENSO neutral conditions in the Pacific. In other words, the combination of warm water to fuel storms and reduced wind shear across the Gulf of Mexico allowed for unhindered tropical development in the Atlantic basin.

Credit: NOAA

Windy Conditions Expected for the Thanksgiving Day Parade in NYC

The Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade is a long-standing holiday tradition in New York City.  For 93 years, it has marched rain or shine. Nevertheless, the weather has affected the event several times over the years.

Famous for its giant character balloons, high winds are the main weather challenge for the parade. According to city guidelines, the multi-story balloons cannot fly if there are sustained winds in excess of 23 mph or gusts higher than 34 mph. These regulations were put in place following a 1997 incident where gusty winds sent the “Cat in the Hat” balloon careening into a light post, which caused debris to fall on and injure spectators.

The only time the balloons were grounded for the entire parade was in 1971, when torrential rain swept across the city. In 1989, a snowstorm brought the Big Apple a white Thanksgiving and the “Snoopy” and “Bugs Bunny” balloons had to be pulled from the parade because of damage from high winds.

This year, the wind could potentially be a problem again. Gusts are forecast to be between 30 and 40 mph during the parade hours. City officials say they will wait to see what conditions are actually like on the day before they make any decisions about grounding or limiting the balloons.

Marching from West 77th Street to West 34th Street in Manhattan, the 93rd Annual Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade is scheduled to begin at 9 AM on Thursday morning.

Happy Thanksgiving!

The Paddington Bear balloon floats down 6th Ave in Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade.           Credit: Macy’s

Why the Sky Looks Bluer in Autumn

Autumn is well known as the time of year when leaves change color. Not as well known, however, is the fact that the sky also changes shades with the season.

In general, we see the sky as blue because of Rayleigh scattering. This is a phenomenon where the molecules of nitrogen and oxygen that make up most of Earth’s atmosphere scatter the incoming light radiation from the sun. More to the point, they are most effective at scattering light with short wavelengths, such as those on the blue end of the visual spectrum. This allows blue light to reach our eyes from all directions and dictates the color we understand the sky to be.

The arc height of the sun’s apparent daily passage across our sky, which varies with the seasons, determines how much of the atmosphere the incoming light must pass through. This, in turn, affects how much scattering takes place. Simply put, the more Rayleigh scattering, the bluer the sky appears.

That said, humidity levels also play a role. Water vapor and water droplets are significantly larger than nitrogen and oxygen molecules and therefore scatter light differently. Instead of sending light in all directions, they project it forward. This is known as Mie scattering and tends to create a milky white or hazy appearance in the sky.

During the summer months, when the sun is higher in the sky, light does not have to travel as far through the atmosphere to reach our eyes. Consequently, there is less Rayleigh scattering. The warm temperatures of summer also mean the air can hold more moisture, increasing the effect of Mie scattering. As a result, the summer sky tends to be relatively muted or pale blue.

In autumn, the sun sits lower on the horizon, increasing the amount of Rayleigh scattering. The season’s cooler temperatures also decrease the amount of moisture the air can hold, diminishing the degree of Mie scattering. Taken together, these two factors produce deep blue skies.

When this azure hue is contrasted with the reds and yellows of the season’s famous foliage, all of the colors look even more vibrant.

Photo credit: Azure-Lorica Foundation

October 2019: Earth’s Second Warmest October on Record

Our global temperature continued its upward trend last month with October 2019 marking the second warmest October ever recorded on this planet. Only October 2015 was warmer.

According to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, Earth’s combined average temperature for the month – over both land and sea surfaces – was 58.86°F. That is 1.76°F above the 20th-century average. October also marked the 418th consecutive month with a global temperature above its long-term norm. That means the last time any month posted a below-average reading was December 1984.

Furthermore, the ten warmest Octobers have all occurred since 2003, with the last five Octobers being the five warmest on record.

While heat dominated most of the planet this October, some places were particularly warm, including Alaska, northern Canada, eastern Europe, northern Russia, the Middle East, and western Australia. These soaring temperatures are largely attributed to the long-term trend of human-caused climate change.

For many people in the northern and central parts of the contiguous US, however, this October was unusually cold. To put this disparity into context, consider that the United States constitutes less than 2% of the total surface of the Earth. This detail also highlights the fact that climate change is a complex global phenomenon that involves much more than the short-term weather conditions that are happening in any one part of the world.

Year to date, the first ten months of 2019 were the second warmest such period of any year on record. At this point, it is very likely that 2019 will finish among the top five warmest years on record. Global temperature records date back to 1880.

Credit: NOAA

Arctic Blast Brings Record Cold Temperatures to NYC

The calendar says November, but it felt more like January in New York City on Wednesday as a blast of frigid arctic air plunged into the region.

In Central Park, the temperature dropped to 25°F late Tuesday night and hit 23°F early Wednesday morning, setting new record lows for both dates. According to the NWS, the previous records of 26°F for November 12 and 24°F for November 13 were set in 1926 and 1986, respectively.

The high temperature on Wednesday only reached 34°F, which is 8°F colder than the normal low for this time of year. The average high for the city in mid-November is 55°F.

Produced by a deep dip in the jet stream, these unusually cold conditions are expected to hang around for a while. Temperatures are forecast to moderate slightly but still remain below average as we move into next week. Keep those hats and gloves handy!

Credit: The Weather Gamut

Weather Lingo: Blue Norther

Autumn is a transitional season when the heat of summer fades away and the chill of winter gradually returns. But, sometimes winter can be aggressive and show up overnight.

When this type of rapid temperature change happens, it is often called a Blue Norther. This is a fast-moving cold front marked by a quick and dramatic drop in temperature. A fall of 20 to 30 degrees in just a few minutes is not uncommon. They also usher in a dark blue sky and strong northerly winds. Hence, the name.

Blue Northers are most common in the central US, where there are few natural barriers to slow or block arctic air masses from moving south. They can occur throughout the year, but are most common between November and March.

One of the most famous examples of this weather phenomenon was the “Great Blue Norther” of November 11, 1911. As the front passed through the southern plains, temperatures dropped from highs in the 70s and 80s to the teens in just ten hours. In Oklahoma City, for example, the temperature reached a record high of 83°F in the afternoon and then plummeted to a record low of 17°F by midnight. Both records, according to the NWS, are still in place.

Twenty-four temperature changes from The Great Blue Norther of 1911. Credit: FOX

First Freeze of the 2019 Fall Season in NYC

After a warm start to autumn, Mother Nature brought New York City a winter preview on Friday.

According to the NWS, the temperature in Central Park dropped to 29°F late Friday night. That was the coldest air the city has seen since March and marks the first freeze of the season.

Compared to the above-average temperatures the city has been experiencing this season, this first nip of frosty air was a bit jarring for some people. But, mid-November is when the city usually sees its first freeze. The earliest 32°F reading on record came on October 19 twice, first in 1940 and then again in 1974. Our latest first freeze was on December 22, 1998.

Produced by a deep dip in the jet stream, these chilly conditions are expected to last for a day or two. Then, after a brief warm-up, another shot of arctic air is forecast to hit the city next week. Keep those coats and gloves handy!

Average Dates for First Frost. Credit: Cornell

How Climate Change is Impacting Fall Foliage

Colorful foliage is the hallmark of autumn, especially in the northeastern United States. As the season heats up, however, this familiar natural phenomenon is reflecting the impacts of our changing climate.

While decreasing sunlight hours is a key factor that signals the annual color change, the timing and duration of the displays are largely dependent on temperature and precipitation. Dry, sunny days and cool nights are the ideal conditions for beautiful fall foliage. But, as our climate changes, warmer and wetter conditions are becoming more common across the region.

In general, this means autumn colors are expected to peak later and disappear sooner. While there will still be variability from year to year, the fall foliage season, overall, is expected to get shorter. Furthermore, with the increasing probability of extreme weather events, such as heavy rainstorms, leaves could be swept from trees effectively ending the leaf-peeping season in a single day.

More than just an aesthetic detail, these changes are sure to have an impact on the multi-billion-dollar a year ecotourism industry in several states.

Credit: Climate Central

Why Leaves Change Color in the Autumn

Autumn is a season well known for its colorful foliage. The often-celebrated aesthetic displays, however, are actually part of a process that trees use to survive the winter.

As daylight hours decrease in the fall, there is less sunlight available to power photosynthesis – the chemical process that provides nutrients to trees by converting carbon dioxide and water into glucose. This, in combination with falling temperatures, signals the tree to stop producing food and prepare for a period of dormancy, which is similar to hibernation.

To do this, a tree turns off its food producers by slowly corking the connection between leaf-stems and its branches. This blocks the movement of sugars from the leaves to the tree as well as the flow of water from the roots to the leaves.  As a result, the leaves stop producing chlorophyll, the agent of photosynthesis and the reason for the green color of summer foliage. As the green fades, other chemicals that have been present in the leaves all along begin to show. These include xanthophyll and carotene, which produce yellow and orange leaves, respectively. Red to purplish colors are the result of anthocyanin, a chemical produced as a result of any remaining sugars trapped in a leaf.

While leaves change color every year, the timing and duration of the displays are largely dependent on temperature and rainfall. Dry, sunny days and cool nights are the ideal recipe for beautiful fall foliage. Warmer and wetter conditions, on the other hand, tend to dull and delay the color change. Extreme circumstances, such as frost or drought, can be a source of stress for trees and cause the leaves to fall off faster.

It should also be noted that different species of trees react to atmospheric conditions differently. Therefore, the more diverse a forest, the wider the range of colors in autumn.

Tree in Autumn. Credit: Melissa Fleming

October 2019: Unusually Warm and Wet in NYC

October was unusually warm in New York City this year. We had 19 out of 31 days post above-average readings with one day reaching a record-breaking 93°F. This unseasonable heat helped drive the city’s mean temperature for the month up to 59.9°F, which is 3°F above normal.

On the precipitation side of things, October was rather soggy. Overall, 15 days produced measurable rainfall that added up to 6.15 inches in Central Park. Of this total, more than half fell during just two storms. On average, the Big Apple gets 4.4 inches of rain for the month. It is also interesting to note that October marked the first month since July that the city received above-average rainfall.

Credit: The Weather Gamut