Tag Archives: hurricanes

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

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From year to year, the number and strength of storms developing during the Atlantic hurricane season varies. This year, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center  is expecting an average to slightly below average season.

Tropical cyclones, known as hurricanes in the United States, develop around the globe at different times of the year. In this country, we are most affected by the Atlantic hurricane season, which impacts the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. It runs from June 1 through November 30.

The main driver behind this season’s mild forecast is the likely development of El Niño later this summer.  While centered in the tropical Pacific, El Niño impacts weather around the planet. According to NOAA, “El Niño causes stronger wind shear, which reduces the number and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes. El Niño can also strengthen the trade winds and increase the atmospheric stability across the tropical Atlantic, making it more difficult for cloud systems coming off of Africa to intensify into tropical storms.”

In addition to the seasonal outlook, announced at a press conference in New York City, NOAA also unveiled its new storm surge visualization product. Building on the lessons from super-storm Sandy, this new mapping tool will show the storm surge threat to specific communities beginning when a tropical storm or hurricane watch is issued. Hopefully, this will give the public a better understanding of the dangers of storm surge flooding and allow them to make more informed decisions.

While the overall number of storms expected to develop this year is relatively low, it is important to remember that it only takes one to cause serious damage, if it makes landfall.

Data Source: NOAA

Data Source: NOAA

End of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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The 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially ends today.  Contrary to early predictions, it was relatively quiet.

There were thirteen named storms this season, which is one above average, but only two developed into hurricanes – Humberto and Ingrid.  According to NOAA, that is the least number of hurricanes to form in the Atlantic basin since 1982.  Both storms were also considered very weak. Neither was rated higher than category-1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  On average, the Atlantic produces three major hurricanes, category-3 or higher, every year.

Throughout the season, which runs from June 1st to November 30th, only one named storm made landfall in the U.S.  In early June, Tropical Storm Andrea brought flooding rains and tornadoes to parts of the south, causing one death.

While the exact causes behind this very mild season are being researched, experts say broad areas of high pressure, dry air, and stronger than expected wind shear hindered most tropical development.

Source: NOAA

Source: NOAA

Super Typhoon Haiyan

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Super Typhoon Haiyan hammered the central Philippines late last week.  Locally known as Yolanda, it was the strongest tropical cyclone to ever make landfall.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Haiyan came ashore with sustained winds of 195-mph, the equivalent of a category-5 hurricane in the U.S.   Destructive on their own, these powerful winds also helped produce a devastating 20-foot storm surge that washed out numerous coastal towns and villages. Local officials say the storm impacted approximately ten million people across forty-one provinces, with Tacloban City being the hardest hit area. While the full extent of this natural disaster is still unknown, the Philippine Military reports that 942 people are confirmed dead – primarily from drowning and collapsed buildings. Sadly, government officials expect this number to increase as more areas become accessible and communications are restored.  Some fear the death toll could climb as high as 10,000.

The Philippines, a nation of nearly seven thousand islands, is no stranger to serious storms.  Situated in the warm waters of the tropical western Pacific, they are often hit by typhoons, including four this year alone. None, however, have been as powerful as this recent event.  If the government’s staggering death toll projections are realized, Haiyan will become the Philippines’ deadliest storm on record.

typhoon_Haiyan_noaa

Super Typhoon Haiyan approaches the Philippines.

Image Credit: NOAA

Super-Storm Sandy: One Year Later

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One year ago today, Super-storm Sandy slammed the New York City tri-state area.  Despite being downgraded from hurricane status just prior to landfall, Sandy was the second costliest natural disaster in U.S. history.

Coming ashore with tropical storm-force winds at high tide, Sandy caused a record 13.88-foot storm surge.  It flooded many low-lying areas, including parts of the NYC subway system.  Damaging or destroying more than 650,000 homes, the massive storm displaced thousands of people for months.  According to NOAA, Sandy claimed the lives of 159 people and caused approximately $65 billion in property damage.  The storm also knocked out power to 8.5 million people for multiple days – including most of Manhattan south of 34th Street.

Sandy’s flooding storm surge also highlighted the dangers posed by rising sea levels.  In the wake of the storm, many government agencies – at all levels – began re-evaluating their strategies for dealing with future natural disasters.  The National Hurricane Center changed its policy for issuing warnings on post-tropical storms and is developing a new storm surge warming system. New York City’s Office of Emergency Management re-drew its hurricane evacuation zones. And, the National Flood Insurance Program, operated by FEMA, began implementing new policy rates for homes and businesses in flood prone areas.

While the arduous process of rebuilding is ongoing, progress has been made across the region.  Recovery levels vary by location.

A Cyclone and Typhoon Batter India and Japan

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Hurricanes can develop all over the world, but they are referred to by different names – cyclones or typhoons – in different regions. This past week, two separate storms slammed India and Japan.

In India, Cyclone Phailin barreled across the Bay of Bengal and made landfall in the state of Orissa on Saturday.  Packing winds of 131-mph, it was the equivalent of a category-4 hurricane. Local officials say the storm’s flooding rains and strong winds destroyed tens of thousands of homes and claimed the lives of at least twenty-seven people.  The government’s pre-storm evacuation of nearly one million people, however, is credited with keeping the number of fatalities from being much higher. Sadly, a cyclone that hit the same area fourteen years ago left approximately ten thousand people dead.

On Wednesday, Typhoon Wipha rumbled along the coast of Japan near Tokyo. With sustained winds of 78-mph, it was the equivalent of a category-1 hurricane.  This storm’s torrential rain caused rivers to overflow and triggered deadly mudslides. One of the hardest hit areas was Izu Oshima, an island about seventy-five miles south of the capital, where a record 32.44 inches of rain fell in one twenty-four period.  Officials say this powerful storm destroyed more than three hundred homes and caused the deaths of at least seventeen people. According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, Wipha was the eighth typhoon of 2013.

Back in the United States, the Atlantic hurricane season remains fairly quiet.

A Week of Wild Weather Across the U.S.

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Extreme weather battered much of the United States this past week.  From heavy snow and tornadoes in the plains to a tropical storm in the Gulf and blustery Santa Ana winds in California, this country saw it all in just six days.

Starting on Tuesday, a pre-season winter storm dumped massive amounts of snow across Wyoming and South Dakota. Some places, like Deadwood, SD received as much as 48 inches.

On Wednesday, the NWS named Tropical Storm Karen. Moving north across the Gulf of Mexico, it threatened coastal communities from Louisiana to Florida with heavy rain and storm surge flooding.  Luckily, however, the storm was downgraded to a rainstorm by the time it came ashore.

By Friday, the cold air that produced the blizzard in the northern plains collided with warm moist air to the east and unleashed severe thunderstorms across the region.  They, in turn, spawned numerous tornadoes.  One of the hardest hit areas was Wayne, NE where an EF-4 twister with winds measured up to 170-mph tore through the town.  While widespread property damage and numerous injuries were reported, there were no fatalities.

Over the weekend, powerful Santa Ana winds blasted southern California with gusts reaching 90-mph in some areas.  These warm, dry winds helped fuel a large wildfire in San Diego County.

While extreme weather events are not unusual in this country, having such a large number and wide variety happen more-or-less at once is very rare.

Humberto is the First Atlantic Hurricane of 2013

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The first hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic Season has officially arrived. Humberto strengthened from a tropical storm into a category-1 hurricane early this morning off the coast of Africa.

According to the NWS, this year’s first hurricane is unusually late. The Atlantic usually sees a hurricane develop before August 10th.  More than a month behind schedule, Humberto just missed tying the record for the latest first hurricane by only three hours.  That record remains with Hurricane Gustav, which formed a little after 8 A.M. on this date back in 2002.

Forecasters do not expect Humberto to impact the U.S.  However, it is important to remember that the Atlantic Hurricane Season runs through November 30th and the latter part of the season is usually its most active.

Hurricane Humberto forms off the coast of Africa.

Hurricane Humberto forms off the coast of Africa.

Image Credit: Meteosat/EUMETSAT

Extreme Weather Impacts the National Flood Insurance Program

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Hurricanes and floods are nothing new in the United States.  In the last decade, however, this country has seen a significant increase in these types of extreme weather events.  In response to the financial strain they have put on the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), Congress passed the Biggert-Waters Insurance Reform Act of 2012 (BW-12).

The NFIP, operated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), offers insurance for individual businesses and homeowners in flood prone areas. Congress created this program in 1968 in response to the financial chaos caused by Hurricane Betsy in 1965. This storm, which devastated the Gulf Coast, was the first billion-dollar natural disaster in U.S. history.

To calculate flood risk and the corresponding insurance rates for properties, the NFIP uses special maps that indicate flood zones.  Many of these flood insurance rate maps, however, have not been updated in decades and do not reflect the current flood risk associated with our changing environment.  As a result, many policyholders have been paying below market rates.

The Biggert-Waters Insurance Reform Act re-authorizes the NFIP for five years, but requires a number of changes.  These include, the gradual phasing out of subsidized policies and moving the program toward risk-based rates as new flood insurance rate maps become available.  Subsidized policyholders will see a rate increase of 25% per year until their premiums reflect the actual risk of their location. Non-primary residences, non-residential properties, and repetitive loss properties will be among the first to see these changes.

BW-12 was signed into law a few months before Super-storm Sandy devastated coastal communities throughout the northeast.  Many people whose homes were damaged or destroyed by Sandy’s record storm surge are now beginning to feel the effects of this new policy.

NYC Updates Hurricane Evacuation Zones

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Super-storm Sandy devastated New York City last autumn.  In its wake, emergency management officials have re-drawn the city’s hurricane evacuation zones.

The new zones are based on improved data from SLOSH (sea, lake, and overland surges from Hurricanes), a national Weather Service computer model designed to estimate storm surges.  This new system takes the width of a storm and its wind field into account whereas the old zones were primarily based on a hurricane’s Saffir-Simpson category.

NYC’s new zones are labeled 1 through 6, with zone 1 being the first to be evacuated in the event of a storm.  This system is numeric to avoid confusion with FEMA’s flood zone maps used for insurance purposes.

Go to nyc.gov/hurricane to see if you live or work in an evacuation zone.

NYC's new hurricane evacuation zones.

NYC’s new hurricane evacuation zones.

Image Credit: nyc.gov

Names for the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Every Atlantic hurricane since the mid-1950s has had a unique name.  All of which, come from a set of six rotating lists produced by the World Meteorological Organization.

The WMO will only retire a name when a storm was particularly noteworthy – causing a large number of fatalities or an extraordinary amount of damage.  Sandy, for example, was retired after it devastated a large section of the northeastern United States last season.  The names for this year’s storms are below.

2013HurricaneNames

Chart Data: WMO