Tag Archives: hurricanes

2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

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The number of hurricanes that develop in any given year varies, and this year, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a “near normal” season in the Atlantic.

Tropical cyclones, known as hurricanes in the United States, develop around the globe at different times of the year. In this country, we are most affected by the Atlantic hurricane season, which impacts the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. It runs from June 1 through November 30.

Overall, NOAA predicts a 70% likelihood of ten to sixteen named storms forming this season, of which four to eight could become hurricanes, including one to four major hurricanes. A major hurricane is one that is rated category 3 or higher.

The numbers for this season’s outlook include Hurricane Alex, the unusual storm that developed in the eastern Atlantic in mid-January.

One of the main drivers behind this season’s average to slightly above average forecast is the diminishing presence of El Niño and the likely development of La Niña in the autumn. El Niño conditions tend to suppress tropical activity in the Atlantic while La Niña conditions do the opposite.

After three consecutive below average hurricane seasons in the Atlantic, a normal season will likely feel very active. But regardless of the number of storms that actually form, it is important to remember that it only takes one landfalling system in your community to make it a memorable season.

Source: NOAA

Source: NOAA

Hurricane Alex: A Rare January Storm in the Atlantic

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January, a winter month in the northern hemisphere, is a time when we are usually talking about snowstorms. Nevertheless, Hurricane Alex, the first named storm of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane season has officially formed.

According to the National Hurricane Center, Alex is the first Atlantic hurricane to form in January since 1938. With sustained winds of 85 mph, it is the second strongest January hurricane on record. Hurricane Alice, which formed at the end December 1954 and lasted through early January 1955, had winds that peaked at 90 mph.

Alex transitioned from a sub-tropical storm – a storm that has both tropical and non-tropical characteristics – into a fully tropical system on Wednesday and then strengthened into a category-one hurricane on Thursday morning.  This type of rapid intensification is usually associated with the storm moving over very warm ocean waters. In this case, however, the sea surface temperatures in the area were above average, but just barely warm enough to support tropical development. So, according to NOAA, Alex likely got an extra boost from an unstable atmosphere. The wide temperature spread between the warm surface air and a pocket of unusually cold air aloft encouraged convection and helped strengthen the warm core of this off-season storm.

Alex is currently located 490 miles south of the Azores and moving north-northeast at about 20 mph. It is expected to bring strong winds, heavy rain, and storm surge flooding to that archipelago over the next 24 hours.

The Atlantic hurricane season traditionally runs from June 1 to November 30th.

Hurricane Alex's forecast track. Credit: NOAA/NHC

The forecast track for Hurricane Alex. Credit: NOAA/NHC

The 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Comes to a Close

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The 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially ends today.  For a third year in a row, it was slightly below average in terms of numbers.

According to NOAA, there were eleven named storms this season. Of these, four developed into hurricanes and only two – Danny and Joaquin – were rated category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. On average, the Atlantic produces twelve named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes (category-3 or higher) every year.

Throughout the season, which runs from June 1st to November 30th, only two named storm made landfall in the U.S.  Tropical Storm Ana, a somewhat rare pre-season storm, brought powerful winds and heavy rain to the coastal regions of both North and South Carolina in early May. It was the second earliest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in the US. In June, Tropical Storm Bill slammed southeastern Texas with winds measured up to 60 mph and relentless rain that caused widespread flash flooding.

The strongest storm to form in the Atlantic this year was Hurricane Joaquin. With winds measured up to 155 mph, it was rated category 4 – the strongest since Hurricane Igor in 2010. It was also a slow mover, battering the Bahamas for several days between late September and early October.

This relatively quiet hurricane season was largely the result of El Niño conditions in the Pacific that generated wind-shear across the Gulf of Mexico and helped hinder most tropical development in the Atlantic basin.

Source: NOAA

Source: NOAA

Tropical Storm Bill Slams Texas

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Tropical Storm Bill, the second named storm of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season, made landfall on Tuesday at Matagorda Island, which is between Houston and Corpus Christi in Texas. It slammed the southeast section of the Lone Star state with winds measured up to 60 mph and relentless heavy rain.

Rainfall totals, according to the NWS, averaged around 3 inches for most places, but some areas southwest of Houston saw much heavier precipitation. The cities of Ganado and El Campo received 11.77 inches and 9.91 inches, respectively. With the soil already saturated from a record wet May, there was widespread flash flooding. Luckily, no serious injures have been reported.

Moving inland toward Oklahoma, another state that experienced a record wet May, the storm was downgraded to a tropical depression on Wednesday. The rain, nonetheless, is ongoing. Looking ahead, the storm is forecast to travel northeast, riding a large ridge of high pressure situated over the southeastern states. The rainy remnants of Bill will likely arrive here in the NYC area by Sunday.

Given that this is an El Niño year – a time when the number of Atlantic hurricanes is usually below average – it is interesting to note that two named storms have already made landfall in the US this season. First Ana in May and now Bill. This shows that land-falling storms can occur even in “quiet” years and that it is important to be prepared throughout the hurricane season. 

Tropical Storm Bill making landfall on Texas coast. Credit: NOAA

Tropical Storm Bill making landfall on Texas coast. Credit: NOAA

Remnants of Tropical Storm Bill are forecast to impact the east coast by the weekend. Credit: NOAA

Traveling from the Gulf of Mexico across the mid-west, remnants of Tropical Storm Bill are forecast to impact the east coast by the weekend. Credit: NOAA

Names for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Today is the first day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. While the number of storms expected to develop this year is low, their names have already been chosen.

Since 1950, each Atlantic tropical storm or hurricane has had a unique name.  They come from a set of six rotating lists produced by the World Meteorological Organization. A name is retired only when a storm was particularly noteworthy – causing a large number of fatalities or an extraordinary amount of damage. Some retired Atlantic Basin names include: Andrew, Katrina, and Sandy.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially runs from June 1st to November 30th. The names for this year’s storms are below.

2015 Atlantic Storm Names

AnaHenriOdette
BillIdaPeter
ClaudetteJoaquinRose
DannyKateSam
ErikaLarryTeresa
FredMindyVictor
GraceNicholasWanda

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

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From year to year, the number and strength of storms that develop during the Atlantic hurricane season varies. This year, despite the pre-season arrival of Tropical Storm Ana, NOAA is forecasting a 70% chance of a below average season.

Tropical cyclones, known as hurricanes in the United States, develop around the globe at different times of the year. In this country, we are most affected by the Atlantic hurricane season, which impacts the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. It runs from June 1 through November 30.

The main driver behind this season’s mild forecast is the presence of El Niño in the tropical Pacific. This naturally occurring oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon is known to impact weather around the planet. According to NOAA, “El Niño can strengthen the trade winds and increase the atmospheric stability across the tropical Atlantic, making it more difficult for cloud systems coming off of Africa to intensify into tropical storms.”

While the overall number of storms expected to develop this year is low, it is important to remember that it only takes one land-falling system to cause serious damage.

Data Source: NOAA

Data Source: NOAA

A Quiet 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Comes to an End

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The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially ends today.  For a second year in a row, it was relatively quiet.

According to NOAA, there were eight named storms this season. Of these, six developed into hurricanes and only two – Edouard and Gonzalo – were rated category-3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. On average, the Atlantic produces twelve named storms and three major hurricanes (category-3 or higher) every year.

Throughout the season, which runs from June 1st to November 30th, only one named storm made landfall in the U.S.  Hurricane Arthur, a category-2 storm, brought powerful winds and storm surge flooding to North Carolina’s Outer Banks for Independence Day in early July. It was the earliest hurricane to strike N.C. in the state’s history.

Other countries, such as Bermuda, were hard hit this hurricane season. In October, two storms – Tropical Storm Fay and Hurricane Gonzalo – slammed the island nation in less than a week.

Experts say broad areas of high pressure and dry air were the main factors that hindered more extensive tropical development in the Atlantic this season.

Hurricanes

Source: NOAA

Hurricane Arthur

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Hurricane Arthur made landfall in North Carolina’s Outer Banks late Thursday night. It was the first named storm of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the earliest to strike N.C. in the state’s history.

Coming ashore with 100-mph winds, Arthur was classified as a category-2 hurricane. These powerful winds coupled with storm surge flooding caused widespread power outages and property damage throughout the area. Luckily, no serious injuries or fatalities have been reported.

Traveling north, parallel to the coastline, Arthur soon moved over cooler waters and was downgraded to a tropical storm. Nonetheless, it still brought high winds, heavy rain, and rough surf to many Atlantic beaches over the July 4th holiday weekend.

Arthur was the first hurricane to make landfall in the continental U.S. since 2012.

Eye of Hurricane Arthur passes over NC. Image Credit: NOAA

Eye of Hurricane Arthur passes over NC. Image Credit: NOAA

Arthur: First Named Storm of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Arthur, the first named storm of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season, has officially formed. With winds speeds measured at 40 mph earlier today, the system developed into a tropical storm off the Atlantic coast of Florida.

According to forecasters at the National Hurricane Center, Arthur is expected to strengthen and move north along the eastern seaboard over the next few days. In addition to producing rain and gusty winds, the storm will also create dangerous rip currents at beaches up and down the east coast. Sadly, many July 4th holiday plans in the coastal regions of the Mid-Atlantic States will likely be disrupted.

Credit: National Hurricane Center

Credit: National Hurricane Center

Names for the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Today is the first day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. While it is expected to be fairly mild this year, names have already been chosen for any storms that may develop.

Since 1950, each Atlantic tropical storm or hurricane has had a unique name.  They come from a set of six rotating lists produced by the World Meteorological Organization. A name is retired only when a storm was particularly noteworthy – causing a large number of fatalities or an extraordinary amount of damage.  Sandy, for example, was retired after it devastated a large section of the northeastern United States in 2012.

The names for this year’s storms are below.

Data Source: NOAA/NHC

Data Source: NOAA/NHC