Tag Archives: hurricanes

2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

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Hurricane season begins tomorrow and it is expected to be busy.

Tropical cyclones, known as hurricanes in the United States, develop around the globe at different times of the year. In this country, we are most affected by the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.  Peak activity, however, is usually from August to October when sea-surface temperatures are warmer.

Last year was an extremely active season with nineteen named storms – the third consecutive year with that number.  Four of these made landfall in the US: Beryl, Debby, Isaac, and Sandy.

This year, NOAA is predicting another above average season. Some of the main climate factors of this energetic forecast include warmer than average Atlantic ocean temperatures – which fuel hurricanes – and a currently neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation pattern in the Pacific.  When the El Nino aspect of this oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon is present, it produces upper level winds that can limit the development of Atlantic cyclones.  The neutral phase of this pattern, however, allows for a more favorable environment for storms to develop.

Atl_Hur_2013Chart Data: NOAA

 

Sandy is Retired from List of Hurricane Names

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There will never be another Hurricane Sandy – at least not in name.  The World Meteorological Organization has announced that it is officially retiring the name from its list of Atlantic cyclones.

The WMO is responsible for naming tropical storms and hurricanes around the world.  It maintains a set of six rotating lists for each hurricane-prone region. After a six-year cycle, names are re-used.  Names are only retired when a storm was particularly noteworthy – causing a large number of fatalities or an extraordinary amount of damage. In terms of Sandy, the late October storm claimed the lives of 72 people and caused more than $50 billion worth of damage in the United States alone.

Sandy is the 77th name to be retired from the Atlantic list since the current naming system began in 1953. It will be replaced with Sara beginning in 2018, when last year’s list is recycled.  Some other retired Atlantic Basin names include: Andrew, Katrina, and Irene.

NWS Changes Hurricane Warning Policy

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The National Hurricane Center, in the aftermath of Super-storm Sandy, drew heavy criticism for not issuing a warning in the northeastern United States ahead of the storm.  In response, the NHC announced yesterday that it is changing its policy for how post tropical storm warnings are delivered to the public.

According to the National Weather Service, Sandy was a category-1 hurricane that merged with a cold front and transitioned to a post tropical storm just prior to coming ashore.  Simply put, this means the storm’s energy source changed.  Nonetheless, it still delivered hurricane-strength winds and a devastating storm surge.  While the NWS explanation was technically correct, the change in nomenclature proved to be a source of confusion and led many people to under estimate the threat posed by the historic storm.

Until now, the NHC was only allowed to publish warnings for narrowly defined hurricanes and tropical storms.  With the implementation of the new policies, however, the hurricane center will be able to keep warnings and advisories in place for storms that threaten people and property, even if they lose their tropical characteristics. The new procedures go into effect on June 1st, the official start of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Hopefully, this new approach will avoid any misperceptions in future.

Event: The Science Behind Sandy

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On Thursday, April 4th, Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory will be hosting a public lecture, “The Science Behind Sandy”.

Adam Sobel, an atmospheric scientist and professor at Columbia, is expected to address many of the meteorological questions raised by the historic storm.  Some of these include: What kind of storm was Sandy?  How rare was it?  Can we expect more storms like it in the future?

In light of the catastrophic damage that Super-storm Sandy caused in the New York City area, and the current debates on how to re-build, this talk should be very informative.  For more details, please visit the LDEO website.

 

End of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season formally comes to a close today.  Contrary to early predictions, it was an extremely active season with nineteen named storms.  As the third consecutive year with that number, 2012 tied the record for the third busiest hurricane season in American history. In spite of all this action, however, only four storms made landfall in the United States: Beryl, Debby, Isaac, and Sandy.

The season, which officially runs from June 1st to November 30th, got off to an early start this year with two storms, Alberto and Beryl, arriving in May.  Another early highlight was Debby.  Forming in June, it was the earliest arrival of any “D” storm in history.  After a lull in July, the season roared back into action with eight storms in August, including Isaac. The most memorable storm of the year, however, was Sandy in late October.  Measuring nearly 1000 miles in diameter, it was the largest hurricane ever recorded.

While none of these landfalling storms were rated higher than category-2 on the Saffir–Simpson scale, their impacts were nonetheless devastating. Claiming the lives of more than three hundred people and causing tens of billions of dollars in damage, this hurricane season will not be forgotten any time soon.

Chart Source: NOAA

Mapping Sandy’s Floodwaters in NYC

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Forecasters predicted Sandy would be a serious storm – and it was.  Its storm surge, however, was higher and even more catastrophic than had been anticipated.

The New York Times, earlier this week, published an interactive map of the flooding caused by the super-storm in New York City.  It is an incredibly detailed visualization of how high the floodwaters actually reached in different parts of the city.

Super-Storm Sandy: Recovery NYC

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Two weeks ago, Super-Storm Sandy blasted New York City with high winds and a devastating storm surge.  Since then, many parts of the Big Apple have been slowly returning to normal.  Some of the city’s hardest hit neighborhoods, however, are still in recovery mode.

In an effort to help my fellow New Yorkers, I recently delivered donations to the storm ravaged communities of Staten Island, NY.  Seeing the destruction caused by Sandy first hand was overwhelming.  So many homes were damaged or destroyed, huge amounts of debris were piled up in front yards, and some areas were still without power.

For anyone wishing to help in the ongoing storm recovery process, please visit these websites for more information:  NYC Service,  Mayor’s Fund to Advance NYC,  American Red Cross.

A boat and debris washed ashore in Lemon Creek Park on Staten Island, NY by        Super-Storm Sandy.

Image credit: The Weather Gamut

Super-Storm Sandy

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Sandy, the 18th named storm of this Atlantic Hurricane Season, made landfall near Atlantic City, NJ late Monday. Measuring nearly 1000 miles in diameter, the effects of this massive storm were felt up and down the Eastern Seaboard and as far inland as the Great Lakes. The brunt of the storm, however, was focused in the northeast.

According to the National Weather Service, Sandy was a category-1 hurricane that transitioned to a post-tropical storm just prior to coming ashore.  Despite this technical downgrade in status, the storm maintained hurricane force winds and packed a devastating punch.  It toppled trees and produced a record storm surge of 13.88 feet that caused significant property damage, extensive power outages, and a mounting death toll throughout the region. The hardest hit areas include the densely populated shoreline communities of New Jersey and nearby New York City.

Hurricanes in the northeastern United States are not unheard of, but are generally few and far between.  They typically dissipate over the cool waters of the mid-Atlantic and move out to sea.  Sandy, however, was an exceptional event. Energized by unseasonably warm ocean temperatures, this storm traveled north from the Caribbean, parallel to the US coastline. A large area of high pressure over Greenland, however, soon forced it to make a hard left turn. This shift inland put Sandy on track to meet a cold front moving in from the west. Merging together to form a hybrid nor’easter-hurricane, this colossal and catastrophic weather event earned the title, Super-Storm.

The damage caused by Sandy is currently estimated at $50-billion.

Track of Hurricane Sandy

Image Credit: NOAA

View of Hurricane Sandy from Space

Image Credit: NASA

Preparing for Hurricane Sandy

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Hurricane Sandy, the 18th named storm of this Atlantic hurricane season, battered the Caribbean earlier this week.  Now, it is on course to make landfall along the northeastern coast of the United States within the next few days.

Forecasters, at this point, are uncertain of the exact track the storm will take, but expect it to be a long duration and high impact event. They anticipate that Sandy will bring high winds, heavy rain, coastal storm surges, and flooding to this country’s most densely populated region.  These weather hazards are, in turn, likely to cause widespread power outages.

To prepare, emergency officials suggests:

  • Monitor the news for the latest storm information and any evacuation orders
  • Prepare a storm emergency kit with:
    • Water
    • Non-perishable food
    • Flashlights
    • Battery-powered or hand-crank radio
    • First aid kit
    • Cash
    • Filled prescriptions
    • Extra batteries

For more details on storm preparedness, visit the websites of FEMA and the American Red Cross.

Weather History: Hurricane Gloria

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On this date back in 1985, Hurricane Gloria made its second landfall on the western end of Long Island, NY.  The storm’s strong winds and heavy rain pounded the area, including New York City.

Peaking as a category-4 hurricane in the tropical Atlantic, Gloria weakened to a category-1 storm as it moved northward.  Despite its downgraded status, this storm packed a serious punch.  Battering the eastern seaboard from North Carolina to the Canadian Maritimes, Gloria claimed the lives of eight people and caused $1.94 billion (2012 USD) worth of damage.

Recognizing this storm’s widespread and destructive impact, the WMO retired the name Gloria from the Atlantic Basin’s list of tropical storm names in 1986.

Image Credit: NOAA