New York City saw its first measurable snowfall of the 2017-2018 season on Saturday. According to the NWS, 4.6 inches of snow was measured in Central Park.
While not a blockbuster event, it was enough to leave the city looking like a winter wonderland. With all the holiday lights and decorations on display, the softly falling flakes added to the festive atmosphere.
The timing of this first snowfall was about normal for the Big Apple. On average, the first flakes of the season are seen by December 14. Our earliest first snow event on record was on October 21, 1952, and our latest was January 29,1973. New York City typically gets 25.3 inches of snow for the entire winter season.
First flakes of the season fly in NYC. Credit: Melissa Fleming
La Niña, the cooler counterpart of El Niño, has returned for the second year in a row.
It is a natural event associated with the larger El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern and is marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. More specifically, a La Niña event is declared when sea surface temperatures in that region are at least 0.5°C below average and accompanied by a consistent atmospheric response. This includes more clouds and rain over the western Pacific and less over the central part of that basin. Stronger than average upper-level wind is also a key atmospheric indicator.
The relatively cool water associated with La Niña creates an area of high pressure over the Pacific and pushes the jet stream northward. This, in turn, affects weather patterns around the globe.
In the US, a La Niña event typically brings the southern states conditions that are warmer and drier than normal. The northern tier, on the other hand, usually experiences below average temperatures with the northwest and Great Lakes regions receiving above average precipitation.
That said, every La Niña event is different. There are also other atmospheric factors, such as blocking patterns, which can influence the weather.
According to NOAA, there is a 65%-75% chance of weak La Niña conditions continuing through the winter months.
Typical Winter La Niña jet stream pattern over North America. Credit: NOAA/Climate Prediction Center.
There is an old saying that March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb. It refers to the transition from winter to spring that takes place during the month and the change in weather that usually follows. However, in New York City this year that tradition went out the window as March turned out to be colder than February.
This type of temperature flip-flop, according to NWS records, has only happened five other times in NYC history. The last time was 1984.
This March, twenty-one out of thirty-one days posted below average temperatures. Five of those days had highs that did not get above freezing. In the end, the city’s mean temperature for the month was 39.2°F, which is 3.3°F below normal.
In terms of precipitation, the city was unusually wet in March. In all, we received 5.25 inches of rain, which is 0.89 inches above average. Snowfall was also abundant, with 9.7 inches measured in Central Park. Of that total, 7.6 inches fell during a nor’easter in the middle of the month. March, on average, usually only brings the city 3.9 inches of snow.
This plentiful precipitation, according to the latest report from the US Drought Monitor (3/30), has erased the abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions that have plagued the city for months.
March was colder than February in NYC this year. Credit: The Weather Gamut
Our global temperature continued its upward trend last month with February 2017 marking not only the second warmest February on record but also closing out the planet’s second warmest meteorological winter.
According to the State of the Climate report by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, Earth’s combined average temperature for February – over both land and sea surfaces – was 55.66°F, which is 1.76°F above the 20th-century average. Only February 2016 was warmer.
This February also marked the 386th consecutive month with a global temperature above its long-term norm. That means the last time any month posted a below average reading was December 1984.
The three-month period of December, January, and February – meteorological winter in the northern hemisphere – was also unusually warm. NOAA reports that Earth’s average temperature for the season was 1.60°F above the 20th century average of 53.8°F. That makes it the second warmest winter on record, trailing only the 2015-16 season.
While heat dominated most of the planet this winter, some places were particularly warm, including much of North America and Asia. Here in the contiguous US, it was our sixth warmest winter on record.
Coming on the heels of a five-month long La Niña event, which had a modest cooling effect, these soaring temperatures are largely attributed to the long-term trend of human-caused climate change.
Global temperature records date back to 1880.
Winter 2016-17 was Earth’s 2nd warmest winter season on record. Credit: NOAA
After a mostly mild winter in the northeast, a late season snowstorm blasted the region on Tuesday. In New York City, the storm was less intense than originally forecast but still packed a punch.
According to the NWS, 7.6 inches of snow was measured in Central Park setting a new daily record. The previous record of 4.1 inches had been in place since 1958. Strong winds were also part of the storm with gusts reported up to 38mph. The criteria for blizzard conditions, however, were not met in the Big Apple.
Developing from two different systems that merged off the southeast coast, this nor’easter intensified as it moved northward. In weather lingo, it underwent bombogenesis. The storm’s central pressure dropped from 1007mb on Monday night to 974mb on Tuesday afternoon.
While the storm’s precipitation was plentiful, it was more of a wintry mix than a full on snow event in NYC and other cities along the I-95 corridor. This was because the storm was an “inside runner”. It tracked west of the 40/70 benchmark and pulled warmer marine air onshore. More specifically, a shallow zone of air with a temperature warmer than 32°F was wedged between zones of subfreezing air around 5000 feet above the surface. This set-up allowed the snow to melt then refreeze as sleet before hitting the ground.
For areas further inland, to the north and west, the storm lived up to its hype. Numerous communities across eight states received more than 20 inches of snow. Hartwick, NY reported an impressive 48.4 inches, the highest snow total from the storm.
NYC went from 70°F to 7.6 inches of snow in just two weeks. Credit: Melissa Fleming
The weather world has some interesting words and phrases. One of these is “bombogenesis”.
Sounding rather ominous, it is a combination of the words cyclogenesis (storm formation) and bomb. It refers to the explosive or rapid intensification of an area of low pressure. More specifically, it means the central pressure of a storm system drops at least 24 millibars in 24 hours.
Air pressure is measured in millibars (mb) and the lower it is, the stronger the storm.
Taking place along steep temperature gradients, bombogenesis is most common along the east coast where cold continental air masses meet the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream. Disturbances in the jet stream above this type of temperature contrast help the air to rise and the pressure to drop.
This process can develop any time of the year but is most likely between October and March. When a system “bombs out” – a variation on the original phrase – strong winds, heavy precipitation, and even lightning can be expected. Nor’easters often become “weather bombs” – another popular variation – as they move up the coast.
The biggest snowstorm of the year is expected to blast the northeastern US on Tuesday. In New York City, on top of the significant snow totals that have been forecast, a blizzard warning is in effect.
Different than a typical winter storm, a blizzard is characterized more by wind speeds and reduced visibility than the amount of snow it produces. According to the NWS, the three main factors for blizzard conditions are:
- Wind – Sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35mph or higher.
- Visibility – Falling and/or blowing snow that reduces visibility to ¼ mile or less.
- Time – High winds and reduced visibility must prevail for at least 3 hours.
These conditions heighten the risk of power outages and often produce whiteout conditions on roadways, making travel extremely dangerous. Stay Safe!
A blizzard warning is in effect for NYC. Credit: NWS
February 2017 was the second-warmest February ever recorded in the continental US.
The average temperature of the lower 48 states, according to NOAA’s National Centers of Environmental Information, was 41.2°F. That is a whopping 7.3°F above the 20th-century average and only 0.2°F shy of the record that was set in 1954.
From the Rocky Mountains to the East Coast, thirty-nine states were warmer than normal and sixteen were record warm. Cooler conditions prevailed in the west, but no state in the region was record cold.
Across the country, a substantial number of local temperature records were challenged during the month. In all, 11,743 daily warm records were tied or broken compared to only 418 cold records. Experts say if the weather pattern was “normal”, records events would be unlikely. If it were volatile but balanced, a similar number of record highs and lows would be expected. However, February’s pattern was extremely lopsided.
On a day-to-day basis, these remarkable conditions were driven by a persistent ridge in the jet stream over the eastern US and a trough in the west. That said, the bigger picture of global warming cannot be discounted. According to World Weather Attribution, a partnership of international scientists, “the chances of seeing a February as warm as the one experienced across the Lower 48 has increased more than threefold because of human-caused climate change.”
February also closed out the country’s sixth warmest meteorological winter. Weather records for the contiguous United States date back to 1895.
February 2017 was the second warmest February on record for the US. Credit: NOAA
The spring equinox is still a few weeks away, but meteorological winter (December, January, and February) has officially ended and it was the sixth warmest on record in New York City.
The season, with daily highs ranging from 23°F to 70°F, felt like a temperature roller coaster. But in the end, the warmth came out on top. The city’s average temperature for the season, according to the NWS, was 39.3°F. That is an incredible 4.2°F above normal.
In all, fifty-three days posted above average readings and every month was warmer than its long-term norm. In fact, February 2017 was the city’s warmest February on record.
In terms of snowfall, the city received 20.5 inches in Central Park, which is only 0.5 inches below average. Of this total, 9.4 inches fell during February’s single, quick hitting nor’easter when conditions were briefly cold enough to support snow.
This winter’s pattern of prolonged warm spells separated by a few short-lived blasts of cold air was largely driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation’s positive phase occurring more often and lasting longer than its negative phase.
The city’s warmest winter on record was the 2001-2002 season when the average temperature soared to 41.5°F. Central Park weather records date back to 1869.
February 2017 was New York City’s warmest February on record. Its mean temperature of 41.6°F was a staggering 6.3°F above the long-term norm. Moreover, February was the city’s 20th consecutive month with an above-average temperature.
Overall, we had nineteen out of twenty-eight days that were warmer than normal. Seven of those produced readings in the 60s and one even hit 70°F, marking the first time the city has seen that type of heat in February in twenty years. Two record warm minimum temperatures were also set during the month. On February 19th and 24th, the Big Apple only cooled down to 53°F and 58°F respectively. The average low for those dates is 30°F.
While a few warm days in February are not uncommon, this extended pattern of sustained warmth was very unusual. Driven largely by a persistent positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, warm southern air was funneled northward almost continuously throughout the month.
February is usually the city’s snowiest month on the calendar, and this year, despite the unseasonable warmth, it did not disappoint. Central Park received 9.4 inches of snow, which is 0.2 inches above average. All of it fell during a single, quick hitting nor’easter when the air was briefly cold enough to support frozen precipitation.
Rainfall, on the other hand, was not as abundant. Only 2.48 inches was reported, which is 0.61 inches below normal. The city, according to the latest report from the US drought monitor (2/23) remains abnormally dry.
New York City weather records date back to 1869.
Feb 2017 was NYC’s warmest Feb on record and 20th straight month with an above average temperature. Credit: The Weather Gamut.